El Niño: What it means for the Canary Islands

Compiled with the help of artificial intelligence, based on Spanish-language information. Source below the article.

The idea that climate change was a 20th-century phenomenon is now firmly in the past. For years, the Canary Islands have been suffering its consequences, which are becoming increasingly evident and have been especially intense this summer. Now, the outlook could become even more complicated with the arrival of a new El Niño episode, a natural phenomenon of interaction between the ocean and the atmosphere characterised by an anomalous warming of surface waters in the Pacific.

Origins of the name

The name El Niño was born precisely from an observation made by fishermen in that ocean. Around Christmas time, a current of warmer water than usual would appear off their coasts, leading to a drop in catches. The coincidence with these dates led the fishermen to name the phenomenon in reference to the Christ Child. But behind this name lies a complex climatic mechanism.

El Niño and La Niña are the two main phases of the phenomenon known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a pattern that modifies the temperature of the waters of the central and eastern Pacific and causes changes in atmospheric circulation.

A very strong episode

According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the upcoming episode will not be just any event. The international body points out that the phenomenon has already consolidated and will continue to intensify over the coming months until it reaches “very strong” intensity. The probability that it will persist until February 2027 is also close to 100 percent.

Its effects, however, go far beyond the Pacific Ocean. The alterations associated with ENSO can modify rainfall patterns, temperatures and atmospheric circulation in different parts of the planet. A change in the waters of the Pacific can end up having consequences thousands of kilometres away, although not in the same way in all territories.

The Canary Islands play, in this sense, with particular conditions. Its Atlantic location, subtropical latitude and the usual influence of the trade winds mean that its climatic behaviour is different from that of other regions more directly exposed to the influence of El Niño. For this reason, the intensity of the episode alone does not allow us to anticipate what effects it will have on the Islands.

No direct link in the Islands

David Suárez, territorial delegate of Aemet (the Spanish Meteorological Agency) in the Canary Islands, explains that El Niño does have an effect on the average temperature on a planetary scale. “When there are years with active El Niño, the planet’s temperatures warm up,” he points out in conversation with this newspaper. But this global warming does not imply that temperatures also have to rise in the Canary Islands as a direct effect of the phenomenon. In fact, although seasonal models point to a warmer autumn than usual in the Archipelago, Suárez points out that there are no studies explaining a direct relationship of this phenomenon with rising temperatures in the Islands.

The WMO itself insists on this nuance. That this phenomenon is very strong does not necessarily produce the same consequences everywhere. The response depends on the region, on the time of year and also on the conditions of other oceans, such as the Indian and the Atlantic. These factors can reinforce, weaken or even modify the usual effects of the episode.

International concern

International concern therefore focuses on a broader scenario. The United Nations Secretary-General, António Guterres, warned last Thursday that El Niño is “growing before our eyes” and alerted that rising sea temperatures put the world “in a danger zone of extreme weather”. Furthermore, this episode is developing on a planet that is already warming due to increased greenhouse gas emissions. El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon, and although climate change is not its natural cause, it is what alters its behaviour and makes its impacts more intense and destructive.

Faced with this scenario, the WMO calls for strengthening prevention and response, especially in areas most exposed to droughts, floods and extreme heat. The organisation considers that having reliable forecasts and early warning systems allows governments, economic sectors and communities to prepare in advance for the possible consequences of the episode.

Risk to agriculture

Beyond the specific relationship with El Niño, extreme temperatures pose an added risk to agriculture in the Canary Islands. The persistence of high values can increase evapotranspiration and accelerate the loss of soil moisture, increasing crop water needs and aggravating water stress, especially in a territory already conditioned by scarcity of water resources.

Heat can also directly affect crops such as bananas, vines and various vegetables. Episodes of very high temperatures can cause thermal stress, damage to leaves and fruit, alter ripening cycles, and end up affecting both the yield and quality of harvests. Added to this is the possible impact on pests. Warmer temperatures during periods when the activity of certain insects usually decreases can favour their permanence and extend their activity period, increasing pressure on crops. Prolonged heat can also increase the risk of fires in agricultural and midland areas, by favouring greater dryness of vegetation.

All of this adds pressure to a sector especially vulnerable to changes in weather conditions and increasingly conditioned by episodes of extreme heat.

TIME CONTEXT: Original article publication date: 2026-09-07T21:50:05.083Z Current date: 7 September 2026, Monday

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