Compiled with the help of artificial intelligence, based on Spanish-language information. Source below the article.
Warmer than average autumn predicted
The Canary Islands are heading into autumn with a less than encouraging outlook for those hoping for some thermal relief after the summer. The State Meteorological Agency (AEMET) estimates that there is a 60% to 70% probability that September, October and November will be warmer than usual across the Archipelago.
The seasonal forecast, presented this Wednesday, points to an autumn in which temperatures will remain above average values. The possibility of the season turning out colder than normal stands at just 10%.
Rainfall uncertainty
When it comes to rainfall, however, uncertainty increases. For the Canary Islands, AEMET places a 40% probability on the autumn being drier than usual, while the chance of precipitation exceeding normal values is put at only 10%.
The meteorological agency nevertheless reminds the public that these predictions describe trends across the three-month period as a whole and do not allow for anticipating how each specific episode will unfold. The fact that autumn has a higher probability of being warm does not mean that cold air incursions or periods of below-average temperatures cannot occur, though they would be less frequent.
Forecast limitations
With precipitation, the uncertainty is even greater. AEMET explains that rain is far harder to predict because a single episode of intense rainfall can significantly alter the balance of an entire season.
Across Spain as a whole, the warm signal is also dominant. The probability of a warmer than normal autumn reaches between 60% and 70%, particularly in the north and east of the peninsula and in the island archipelagos.
As for rainfall, AEMET forecasts a higher probability of above-normal rain on the Mediterranean coast during September, while in October and November the wet signal shifts towards the north-west of the peninsula. For the south-west, no clear trend has been identified.
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Wednesday: heat builds across the Islands
Tuesday: sunny start to meteorological autumn
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Sunday: clearer skies and warmer temperatures
