ai job losses canary islands report

AI could destroy up to 105,000 jobs in the Canary Islands

AI ‘will modify, not just destroy’ jobs, expert says

Artificial intelligence (AI) – still used by many simply to ask everyday questions – is set to transform the way we work. As this new technology becomes increasingly integrated into workplace processes and changes how many jobs are performed, professionals currently in those roles face the risk of seeing their positions disappear. And the risk is real.

The first major report analysing the impact of AI on the Spanish labour market estimates that between 78,000 and 105,000 jobs could be destroyed in the Canary Islands over the next ten years. And this is only in one of the less pessimistic scenarios. Across Spain as a whole, the study by Funcas – a think tank dedicated to economic and social research – predicts that between 1.7 and 2.3 million currently occupied jobs could vanish.

Since the Canary Islands accounts for 4.6% of total national employment – according to data from the Active Population Survey (EPA) – the impact on the archipelago would be between 78,000 and 105,000 jobs, around 10% of all employment in the islands.

New jobs will emerge, but the net balance is negative

However, the study, led by Francisco Rodríguez, Professor of Economics at the University of Granada and Director of the Financial Area and Digitalisation at Funcas, does not paint a completely bleak picture. The implementation of AI will ultimately create new jobs, many of which are types of roles that cannot even be imagined at present. The expert estimates that over the same ten-year period, this new technology could create 1.6 million jobs across Spain.

This suggests that if these new jobs were distributed equitably according to the current national labour market share – which is not necessarily a given, as volumes could vary by region depending on the local economic model – the Canary Islands could gain 73,000 jobs. In any case, both at national and regional level, and in all scenarios outlined by the study, the balance between jobs destroyed and jobs created is negative. In other words, although it will create professional opportunities, AI will ultimately eliminate many of the occupations that are currently widespread.

Which jobs are most vulnerable?

So, which activities are most exposed to the risk of disappearing due to artificial intelligence? Programmers, customer service staff, market analysts and sales agents are among the most vulnerable professions. However, while AI penetration in the technology sector reaches almost 60%, in the services sector it barely reaches 25%. Consequently, the Spanish economy – and by extension the Canary Islands economy – is not especially sensitive to the risk of automation brought by AI, due to the significant weight of sectors such as tourism and hospitality.

Productivity gains and the human touch

Once this technology is adopted, not all the impact will be negative. The study also notes that between 2.8 and 3.5 million workers will see their productivity improve thanks to AI, with a particular impact on the services sector. “More than an objective destruction of work, what AI will do is modify it,” argues José Miguel González, an economist and director of Consulting and Commercial Management at Corporación 5. He adds that in the case of the Canary Islands, “it will have an impact on labour-intensive production functions, but here there are many market services that serve people, and in those areas they will not be replaced, but rather modified.”

Identifying new technologies as a threat to human work is a situation that has occurred repeatedly throughout history. But the passing of decades has also shown that the added value provided by human beings “can never be completely replaced,” González assures. “Innovations save us work and give us more time, but historically there have always been higher levels of employment,” he explains.

Training is the key, especially for older workers

However, he insists that “we should not fool people either.” If you do not prepare to acquire the new skills that the use of AI will require, it will be difficult to remain in the labour market – just as has already happened, for example, with computer literacy. On how this process could affect a region that already has a high structural unemployment rate, González highlights the ageing of workers in the Canary Islands due to demographic dynamics. “A large part of that unemployment is among people over 52, and for them, updating their knowledge is even more complicated to carry out,” he considers.

But he insists that training will be the only way forward, and that now is the time to learn these new skills. “Older people will have to do it with more determination because they could be pushed out, as we are already seeing,” he concludes.

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