Scientists warn of more earthquake swarms under Teide
“It is expected that there will be swarms and that some earthquakes may be felt.” That was the warning from the director of the National Geographic Institute (IGN), Itahiza Domínguez, following a meeting of the committee for the Special Plan for Civil Protection and Emergency Response to Volcanic Risk in the Canary Islands (Pevolca), held in response to the uptick in activity that Teide has been showing since February.
At the same meeting, where scientists and the regional government ruled out an eruption in the short or medium term, it was agreed to convene every three months to monitor the phenomenon more closely. “We believe that monitoring should be carried out periodically,” Domínguez insisted.
Activity double the average of the last decade
“We continue to record higher activity than in previous years,” explained Domínguez, who noted that ten swarms have been detected west of Las Cañadas this year alone. That figure is nearly double the six recorded between 2016 and 2025.
This year’s activity has been divided into two main periods, although in six months the depths of Tenerife have never been completely silent. The first period occurred between February and March when, according to Domínguez, “a significant activation phase” was observed. Most of the year’s swarms (seven in total) were recorded during this period, along with the emergence of very low-frequency seismic pulses.
Between April and May, activity beneath Tenerife subsided to little more than background noise. The second uptick came in June and July, when three swarms were detected. “Each one had its own peculiarities and characteristics,” said Domínguez, adding that all these movements “are related to the movement of fluid” at great depth. Since late July, no further series of earthquakes have been detected beneath the flanks of Teide.
Swarms lasting days instead of hours
The renewed activity at Teide is not only noisier but also longer-lasting. “Before 2026, swarms lasted a few hours,” Domínguez explained. This year, however, some have stretched on for days. “A case in point is 22 July, which lasted for two days,” he said. Furthermore, prior to 2026, swarms were largely isolated events. “We would have a swarm that lasted a few hours and that was it; but now we are seeing series of swarms,” he indicated.
Difficult to predict what comes next
Despite detecting this increase in activity, the lack of historical data on eruptions in Tenerife makes it very difficult to know what stage the island’s volcanic system is in. “We know that the level of activity is above what it was before, but we must remember that we only have 20 years of data, and Tenerife’s volcanic system has an eruption roughly every 100 years or more,” Domínguez said. For that reason, he insisted, “it is difficult to know whether we are closer to an eruption or not.”
What scientists are clear about is that none of these movements increase the risk of an eruption in the short or medium term – that is, within weeks or months. However, they stress that it can never be ruled out that more conclusive signals could begin to appear tomorrow, potentially leading to an eruption. “What would be worrying is if we started to see events at shallower depth, of greater magnitude, and rapid deformation,” Domínguez highlighted.
For a volcanic event to be triggered, Domínguez reminded, a magmatic intrusion must occur – something that has not happened to date. In any case, he called for calm: “This could happen at some point, but there is always time, because a pre-eruptive phase can last weeks or months.” On La Palma, for instance, it lasted a week, but in the case of El Hierro, that phase lasted several months.
Tremors so far too small to be felt
It is worth recalling that all earthquakes recorded beneath Tenerife since 2016 have had a magnitude of less than 2 and have not been felt by the population at any point. Meanwhile, the ground deformation detected since 2023 has been very slow and currently stands at barely two centimetres. “We have detected slight changes in that deformation, but nothing significant,” he summarised.
For the coming months, scientists warn that these swarms will continue to occur and that the time may even come when some earthquakes could be felt “slightly” by the population. They also note that this activity could persist in the western part of Las Cañadas, but “it could also happen elsewhere.” In this regard, Domínguez pointed out that earthquakes do not indicate exactly where the magma is. “The magma puts pressure on the crust and can sometimes generate earthquakes in other areas,” the scientist said, adding that this complicates any attempt to confine seismic-volcanic activity to a single zone.
This is why researchers must constantly monitor this and other phenomena that may arise, such as gas emissions or ground deformation.
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