Compiled with the help of artificial intelligence, based on Spanish-language information. Source below the article.
The origins of a phenomenon
In the late 19th century, in the port of Paita, Peru, a group of fishermen were trying to work out why they were catching less than usual. It was December, and in waters that were normally very cold (home to the Humboldt Current, the perfect habitat for their usual catch), the water was warmer than it should have been. They understood this was a curious phenomenon, one they had noticed before, and they named it El Niño, both because of its proximity to Christmas and in honour of the baby Jesus.
That circumstance eventually reached the ears of Camilo Carrillo, a Peruvian meteorologist, who investigated, documented and recorded the El Niño phenomenon for the first time in 1892: a natural climate pattern that cyclically warmed the surface waters of the tropical, central and eastern Pacific Ocean.
How El Niño works
El Niño typically reappeared at intervals of between two and seven years. Each episode usually developed over a period of nine to twelve months, and could sometimes stretch to eighteen. This anomalous warming alters the exchange of heat and moisture between the ocean and the atmosphere and disrupts air circulation. As a result, the usual rainfall zones shift and significant changes in temperature and precipitation occur in regions far removed from the Pacific. What begins near Peru therefore ends up having consequences across the entire planet.
A Super El Niño is coming
In recent days, I believe there is no longer a single United Nations agency that has not warned, from its own perspective and remit, that the El Niño of 2026 – which officially arrived on 26 June – will not only be strong, but, because of climate change, will reach the fearsome status of Super El Niño: it will almost certainly be the strongest ever recorded.
To put this in context: on previous occasions when an intense El Niño has been announced, it was on the basis of a thermal anomaly of two degrees Celsius above the historical average. Right now, measurements of surface waters are already 3.07 degrees above it. Scientists’ projections suggest that within a few months we could see 4 degrees at the surface and differences of up to 8 degrees at depth.
To paint a simple picture, this Super El Niño is like an enormous valve transmitting heat into an atmosphere that, with climate change, is already hotter than ever.
Extreme heat and torrential rain
And what consequences will it bring? Extreme heat, with record temperatures, and torrential rain: the most severe droughts and floods since 1950 are expected. It is paradoxical that a single climate pattern can generate such opposing disasters around the world, exacerbating pre-existing vulnerabilities (something deeply worrying for Africa) and forcing us into a differentiated response.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres has warned that we are facing a phenomenon of gigantic proportions and that the world is heading into uncharted territory.
The human cost
Several international reports are beginning to put figures on what lies ahead: the Climate Impact Lab at the University of Chicago forecasts a tragic toll of 451,000 additional deaths from extreme heat over the next six months, overwhelmingly concentrated in the Global South. Africa will take the worst of it. The Sahel, for example, will account for 66,800 of those deaths (with 31,400 in Nigeria, 17,500 in Sudan, 10,000 in Niger and 8,000 in Chad).
Extreme heat also brings a food and economic crisis. World Food Programme (WFP) estimates put the number of people who will enter a state of acute food insecurity at 49 million, while another analysis by the African Development Bank (AfDB) puts the direct macroeconomic impact on Africa at between 10 and 20 billion dollars (a reduction of 1% to 2% of continental GDP).
Early warning is the real shield
I have written in previous articles that it is absolutely untenable for the world to stand by with its arms folded in the face of warnings with such a strong scientific basis. And that the true shield against the disproportionate impact of climate change in Africa lies not solely in post-disaster relief, but in our ability to anticipate through science and meteorology.
In the scenario of extreme vulnerability in which we see the African continent, the shortage of adequate measurement tools is not a mere technical detail, but a tragic gap that translates into human lives. While it is true that in recent years Africa has made significant progress in developing early warning systems for extreme weather events, important differences persist between countries, and that translates into death: an extreme event causes six times more fatalities in countries with deficits in their measurement and early warning systems.
I read various reports saying that Africa has, at least, woken up in recent years. In September 2026, 41 African countries have declared that they have multi-hazard early warning systems, compared with only 14 in 2015. Moreover, the comprehensiveness of these systems – that is, their ability to cover the different phases from hazard detection and forecasting through to communicating the alert and preparing the population – has more than doubled since 2022. Part of this progress is explained by greater cooperation between countries and by initiatives driven by the African Union.
The figure is positive, but it must be remembered that they started from a very low base: just three years ago, Europe and the United States had as many as 636 weather radar stations between them to monitor 20 million square kilometres and protect 1.1 billion inhabitants, while across the entire African continent there were barely 37 stations in 2023 to monitor 30 million square kilometres and 1.3 billion people.
A global phenomenon, not just an African one
From Casa África we have presented initiatives and sought to raise awareness at national and international level of the need to strengthen the early warning system in our African neighbourhood. I hope that the improvements achieved, though still insufficient, will allow this approaching Super El Niño to do as little damage as possible.
But it is naive to express that wish at a moment when countries such as the United States and even some in the European Union have cut or drastically reduced development aid, which included projects of this kind. And those who continue to deny climate change are the ones who care least that thousands of people may die in Somalia, Ethiopia or the Sahel.
In this case, this Super El Niño will not be an exclusively African phenomenon by any means: in the United States, for example, California has already declared a pre-emptive state of emergency to mobilise resources and prepare its infrastructure for the storms, hurricanes and heatwaves that are expected.
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