storm therese canary islands weather warning march 2026

Storm Therese to Batter Canaries for Five Days with Wind and Rain

Major storm system approaches the archipelago

Storm Therese is set to strike the Canary Islands for five consecutive days, bringing a potent mix of very strong winds, lightning and thunder, frost, snow, heavy rainfall, and large waves. The impending impact is due to this deep Atlantic low-pressure system currently forming to the north of the archipelago, though a high degree of uncertainty still surrounds its exact path. In fact, depending on where it moves in the coming hours and days, it cannot be ruled out that it could impact the islands directly, creating an extraordinary meteorological situation. Therese is therefore the first storm of this season that could position itself right over the Canaries—a scenario that would not only increase its rainfall potential but also the level of risk it could entail.

Uncertain timeline with multiple phases

David Suárez, the delegate of the State Meteorological Agency (Aemet) in the Canary Islands, who is closely monitoring the storm, revealed: “It is forecast that between Wednesday and Sunday, or even Monday, we will feel the effects of this storm.” He acknowledged that there are currently more unknowns than certainties about this system. The episode will have several phases, though the final ones are the least clear. Upon its arrival on Wednesday, Therese will be accompanied by an initial band of precipitation. “These are not forecast to be significant rains,” stated Suárez, explaining that on that day, rainfall will be weak or locally moderate.

Thursday set for the worst conditions

The situation will change on Thursday. That is when Therese will deploy several “more active” fronts over the islands. Rain will then be moderate to heavy, persistent on southern and western slopes, including their peaks. These downpours will be particularly heavy during the second half of the day and will, at times, develop into intense thunderstorms. It is forecast that this same Thursday, following a significant drop in maximum temperatures which will be more pronounced in the high mountains, snow will return to cover the peaks. Specifically, Aemet has set the snow level between 1,600 and 1,900 metres.

Strong winds and coastal warnings issued

Due to the storm’s position north of the Canaries, winds will blow from the southwest—moderate with intervals of strong in low-lying areas, and strong in mid-altitude regions and summits. Gusts could be very strong in high and mid-altitude areas of the northwest and southeast of the mountainous islands. From Friday onwards, the forecast contains more doubts than certainties, as the movement of the storm is still unclear. While weather models point to one scenario or another without providing absolute data, Aemet is preparing for the potential impact it may have on the islands during the weekend.

“There is still a lot of uncertainty because the models are changing regarding its position and how deep it becomes, so its impacts could vary,” explained Suárez. It will ultimately depend on how close the system gets to the Canaries—today the European ECMWF model places it between the Azores and the Canaries—as well as the “depth” the storm itself acquires. Nevertheless, some forecasts already suggest that more than 500 litres per square metre could accumulate over the five days of the storm on La Palma, with over 300 litres in some areas of southern Tenerife—especially those closer to Adeje—and in some parts of southern Gran Canaria.

Active warning season sets new record

Despite the uncertainty, Suárez warns that “what we will have clear is an intense westerly wind” and that this will lead to the activation of warnings in the coming days, “including an orange-level alert.” For this Wednesday, yellow warnings for wind have been activated in the north and south of Tenerife, El Hierro, La Palma, and the north and peaks of Gran Canaria; as well as for coastal phenomena across all of La Palma. Aemet will update the warnings daily due to the impact of this storm, as it cannot activate them until there is certainty, something that only happens with a lead time of two days.

With the naming of this storm, the season becomes the most active on record. As confirmed by Aemet, since the season began in October last year, 19 systems have been named, “an absolute record since naming began in 2017-2018.” Until now, the season with the most named storms was 2023-2024, with a total of 17. The formation of these storms at a latitude as low as the Canaries’ is not unusual. It is associated with the prevalence of a known weather pattern: a Scandinavian anticyclonic blockage that allows these storms to break away from the polar jet stream and reach almost to the equator.

However, what has surprised scientists this year is not the atmospheric setup that has led to these persistent rains in the Canaries and Spain, but that the atmosphere has never remained anchored in the same position for so long. “It has been a very persistent pattern,” revealed Suárez, who added that the archipelago has also been influenced by the Azores High. “By not having weakened, many of the storms have slid along it and reached us from the north,” the scientist explained. Simultaneously, the polar jet stream has been less “restrained.” “If it is normally situated more around the Arctic, this year it has shifted towards Greenland,” said José Miguel Viñas, a meteorologist at Meteored, who insists this has allowed cold air to escape from the North Pole and aided the formation of these storm structures.

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