Compiled with the help of artificial intelligence, based on Spanish-language information. Source below the article.
El Niño could be the most intense in recent times
The El Niño phenomenon could be the most intense seen in recent times. This climatic event, which involves the unusual warming of surface waters in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, occurs in cycles of between two and seven years, generating impacts across the rest of the world. For 2026, meteorologists are already talking about its possible impact on Spain, which could arrive in autumn. But what exactly is this phenomenon?
Understanding El Niño and La Niña
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) distinguishes between El Niño and La Niña as two opposing phases of the same phenomenon. “This phenomenon alters temperatures in the central and eastern zones of the equatorial Pacific and, at the same time, brings changes to the atmosphere above its waters,” it explains. El Niño is the warm phase, which can last up to 18 months, while La Niña is the cold phase, lasting up to three years.
El Niño is characterised by unusually warm surface water temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific. The WMO notes that it was sailors and fishermen from the region who, upon noticing that a warm current reduced their catches, usually around Christmas time, decided to name the phenomenon El Niño in reference to the Christ child. La Niña, by contrast, refers to colder-than-normal temperatures, with easterly winds intensifying. The WMO also makes reference to a neutral phase of the phenomenon, which occurs when ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific remain close to normal values.
Both phases begin to develop between March and June, while their maximum effects are felt between November and February. Hence meteorologists are analysing the current situation to determine what lies ahead for autumn and winter.
Warmer autumn for the Canary Islands
Popular meteorologist Mario Picazo recently stated that Spain is most likely to experience a “clearly warm” autumn, with humid conditions and irregular rainfall distribution, although torrential episodes in the Mediterranean cannot be ruled out. According to Picazo on eltiempo.es, the Canary Islands would remain on the margins of the high probability of precipitation at the start of autumn, which is as far as the seasonal climate model predictions extend. However, the islands will also experience a warmer-than-normal autumn, with equally hot nights.
Indeed, he clarifies that summer heat is likely to extend for several months, potentially even lasting into November. A few months ago, the State Meteorological Agency (Aemet) explained that El Niño could manifest with moderate or strong intensity after summer. This situation will not affect all areas of the planet equally, but it will alter habitual weather patterns. In this regard, some regions may experience heatwaves and droughts, while others may see torrential rain and flooding.
What’s happening in the Canaries – straight to your phone
News, weather alerts and practical updates – direct from the islands, in English. We live here and know what’s going on – before the international media catch up. Everything lands on our WhatsApp channel – no middlemen, no algorithm. Curated for families, expats and travelers.
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