A Crucial Week for Canary Islands Tourism
The Canary Islands’ tourism sector had this week circled in red on the calendar – and for good reason. The International Tourism Fair (ITB) in Berlin begins this Tuesday. The primary goal was to moderate the downward trend in German visitor arrivals to the Islands since the last quarter of last year, and there were well-founded hopes this could be achieved. However, the US and Israeli attack on Iran, the ayatollahs’ response, and the rapid translation of the conflict to the energy market now mean all conversations are being held with one eye on the Strait of Hormuz and the Arabian Peninsula.
German Demand Under Threat
“German demand is not going to grow,” confirms the president of the Hospitality and Tourism Federation of Las Palmas (FEHT), José María Mañaricua. Can last year’s numbers at least be maintained? The business representative believes so, but only if the new armed conflict does not drag on. If the end of the exchange of projectiles takes more than a month to arrive, it will be very bad news. Global experts are already warning that the price of Brent crude oil will soar above 100 dollars – it was nearing 80 this Monday – and the announcement of the shutdown of Qatar’s crude industry has caused gas prices to spike by almost 50%. With the cards now on the table, little remains in doubt. “It will depend on the economy and geo-strategy,” states the president of the Santa Cruz de Tenerife hotel association (Ashotel), Jorge Marichal.
A Strategic Market at a Crossroads
Both business leaders therefore agree in placing the conflict at the centre of their analysis of the German market’s evolution. The German market is, however, hugely important for the Archipelago as a whole and is strategic for Gran Canaria, Fuerteventura, and the western province’s ‘green islands’ (La Palma, La Gomera, and El Hierro). Whether international events turn sour or not, the business owners sitting down to negotiate with German tour operators from this Tuesday have no choice but to roll up their sleeves and tackle the ITB with full intensity.
Recent Trends and Current Challenges
Until September last year, German arrivals were trending upwards. In the last quarter, the tide turned. The arrival of German tourists to the Canaries fell by 7.9% in December, but the strong performance of the first nine months allowed 2025 to end flat; with just 328 more visitors than the previous year. Marichal explains that in these days they will try to “stop the negative numbers.” Mañaricua focuses on the savings Germans have available in banks, “more than in any other country in Europe.” To this, he adds the German government’s decision last year to increase the country’s debt to stimulate an economy hit by Trump’s tariffs, which managed to close the year in positive territory – the first time it had done so in three years.
Glimmers of Hope and the Oil Price Factor
That capital injection “will land in the real economy in the second half of this year,” emphasises the FEHT president. And that is another piece of good news for the Canary Islands’ accommodation sector; “but always depending on how the price of oil evolves,” insists Mañaricua.
The Battle for Air Capacity
Gaining air capacity is another challenge facing the Canary Islands delegation. José María Mañaricua highlights that in the first month of this year, 2% more passengers arrived in Gran Canaria from Germany, an increase that rises to 5.2% for the whole of 2025. However, the offer to fly between Germany and the Archipelago has been reduced by 5.7% for the winter season – which ends on 29 March – and is forecast to also fall by 8.6% for the summer season. Jorge Marichal does not read these figures negatively, as an oversupply could trigger a forced “drop in prices” that would scare off tour operators and airlines. The challenge at this ITB is to ensure that reduction in available seats does not translate fully into a reduction in travellers.
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